What Business is Mentioned in Project Everest PSL? (Analysis)

Update 1/8/24: The TCPalm has reported that Costco will be a distribution center. Still, the city is in further negotiations, which brings us a faint hope for a store in PSL. Mayor Martin responded to a comment of mine about Costco saying, “We are working on a retail store with them but we haven’t received any commitment yet.”

When the Port St. Lucie's “Project Everest” summary floated around local Facebook groups, everyone had their guess. Maybe it’s a Kroger, Costco, or a random warehouse company. 

Under normal circumstances, we would’ve been left with guesswork. But thankfully, the project summary left us with clues. 

So let’s dive in! 🔎

We know:

• It needs to be a public company that’s at least 40 years old

• It’s a wholesaler, distributor, and retailer

• It’s made over 200 billion in annual revenue

• It’s in the top 50 on the Fortune list

• There are 300k+ employees

• It’s an international company 

• There are over 800 locations

While most of these statistics might still leave us in the dark, there’s one hint that drastically narrows the pool of options. We have a list of fifty corporations thanks to Fortune. 

I compiled all the information I could to deduce to verify what company we could expect. In the end, I only had one candidate to choose from.

The methodology

First, I located the top 50 Fortune companies. Then, I prioritized the age of the company. It was the fastest way to narrow down the options. 

Since we are in a new year and timelines can be a bit fuzzy, I gave companies a margin of error of 5 years. Additionally, I replaced old founding dates with their new counterparts if they merged or changed legal statuses. 

After identifying which companies were about 40 years old, I analyzed who was a wholesaler, distributor, and retailer.

What is considered a retailer? I used Indeed’s definition. “Retail organizations purchase the goods to sell to consumers from manufacturers, either directly or using a wholesaler. They're the final organizations in the supply chain process…and ends with a buyer.”

After I defined a “yes” or “no” for the type of companies on the list, I compared their 2023 fiscal revenue to the 200+ billion minimum provided to us.

The results

If your first guest was Costco, you got it!

Costco is the only store that meets all requirements. 

Click to see analyses.

I first narrowed the list of 50 with the following companies (35-45 years old):

1. Alphabet (Google parent company)

2. Costco

3. Cigna Group

4. Valero Energy

5. Home Depot

6. Centene

7. AT&T (as it’s post-breakup legal formation)

8. Dell Technologies

Eight companies out of fifty was a great start.

Then, I posed the company-type question (wholesaler, distributor, and retailer). I leaned more liberally on “retail” since some brand roles seemed more fluid and muddied in the market. The results:

1. Costco

2. Valero Energy

3. Home Depot

4. AT&T

After cutting the list in half, I did the final litmus test—annual revenue. Costco was the only company that hit the 200 billion yearly fiscal revenue milestone for 2023. 

1. Costco- 242.29B

2. Valero Energy- 151.09B

3. Home Depot- 153.71B

4. AT&T- 121.75B

After ending with Costco, I matched it with other requirements:

• Is it international? Yes.

• Does it meet 800+ locations? Yes, 870+.

• Are there more than 300k employees? Yes, 316k+ (Statista).

Observations

While we know the company is likely Costco, we’re still left with one big question mark…

Is it the Costco Wholesale we expect? Some have mentioned (local Facebook groups) that the location may only be for distribution. 

One reason for this thinking is that there will be a Costco in Stuart. 

Is it unlikely that Costco would open two stores so close to each other? I don’t think so. The company has membership data that can likely identify St. Lucie County customers visiting its Melbourne and Palm Beach Gardens locations. Port St. Lucie is growing fast, and it may be anticipating that. 

Also, if you explore Palm Beach County, there’s a Costco almost every 20-30 minute drive from each other (Palm Beach Gardens, Lake Worth, Royal Palm, and Boca). I’m not convinced that a Stuart location would cancel out a Southern Grove/Tradition warehouse.

Source: Google Search for Palm Beach Costco locations

Another thing: when you look at distribution centers in the country, only two states have more than one (CA and TX). Those locations are in major cities, and it can take hours to drive between them. They are linked to primary strategic highways that complement each other. 

From that perspective, it doesn’t make sense. Costco would add another center an hour's drive from the Palm Beach distribution base to the same highway routes. It would be the closest Costco distribution centers. But it’s hard to tell without holding the company’s strategy book.

Description: This map shows an overview of distribution centers. The Orlando emblem in Florida is the Orlando business center (not distribution). |  Source: Google Maps app search for Costco distribution centers

There’s also a third option. It could be a “business” center. There’s one in Orlando, and it has larger bulk options that appeal to restaurants and businesses. Imagine buying an entire pig, lamb, or a 5-gallon bucket of soy sauce. We’ll unlikely get a business center because the location isn’t in a highly populated condensed center like Orlando’s spot is.

The most significant insight comes from a local news report over four years ago. WPTV reported that PSL was actively pursuing a Costco retail warehouse for the same spot in Southern Grove. 

This may be the revitalized push to get it. Operation Mount Everest? It sounds like they are finally reaching the peak.

Here’s my take: calling it “Everest” tells me this is the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. It’s a big deal. And hopefully, that implies that everyone wants it. 

PSL leaders also know that Costco is one of the top requests around (and if you explore Facebook groups, you’ll get a dash of Trader Joe’s and Cheesecake Factory mixed in). 

Hopefully, we’ll learn what it is very soon. But if I had to pick a store right now, Costco is the clear plan.